{"id":1278,"date":"2014-10-24T08:45:18","date_gmt":"2014-10-24T06:45:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.h-its.org\/?page_id=1278"},"modified":"2020-04-02T11:50:02","modified_gmt":"2020-04-02T09:50:02","slug":"publikationen","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.h-its.org\/de\/forschung\/cst\/publikationen\/","title":{"rendered":"Publikationen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n  <div class=\"hits-blocks hits-publications-block\">\n\n      <div class=\"hits-tabs\">\n        <nav>\n          <ul>\n                          <li class=\"is-active\"><a href=\"#\" >Publikationen<\/a><\/li>\n                                      <li class=\"is-active\"><a href=\"#\" >Abschlussarbeiten<\/a><\/li>\n                                  <\/ul>\n        <\/nav>\n        <div class=\"content\">\n                      <div class=\"hits-tabs--tab\">\n            \n              <\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2026\">2026<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Dimitriadis T, Hoga Y (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.2025.2520853\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Regressions under adverse conditions<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Business &amp; Economic Statistics, 44(1):227\u2013241 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2121<\/span><\/li><li>Resin J, Wolffram D, Bracher J, Dimitriadis T (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/imstat.org\/journals-and-publications\/statistical-science\/statistical-science-future-papers\/\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Shift-dispersion decompositions of Wasserstein and Cram\u00e9r distances<\/span><\/a>, Statistical Science, published online <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2145<\/span><\/li><li>R\u00fcter L, Schienle M (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnae144\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Model determination for high-dimensional longitudinal data with missing observations: an application to microfinance data<\/span><\/a>, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 189(1):256\u2013291 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2125<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Biegert T, Kraus K, Walz E, Jordan AI, Lerch S (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/AIES-D-25-0054.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output<\/span><\/a>, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 5(1):e250054 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2131<\/span><\/li><li>Mockert F, Grams CM, Lerch S, Quinting J (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.70090\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical\u2013dynamical approach<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, published online:e70090 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2134<\/span><\/li><li>B\u00fclte C, Horat N, Quinting J, Lerch S (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/AIES-D-24-0049.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models<\/span><\/a>, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 5(1):e240049 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2118<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Hoga Y (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.2025.2590126\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Dynamic CoVaR Modeling and Estimation<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Business &#038; Economic Statistics, published online <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2120<\/span><\/li><li>Lerch S, Schulz B, Hess R, M\u00f6ller A, Primo C, Trepte S, Theis S (2026). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/gdj3.70051\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Operational convection\u2010permitting COSMO\/ICON ensemble predictions at observation sites (CIENS)<\/span><\/a>, Geoscience Data Journal, 13(1):e70051 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2133<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2025\">2025<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Chen J, H\u00f6hlein K, Lerch S (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2025JH000819\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Learning low\u2010dimensional representations of ensemble forecast fields using autoencoder\u2010based methods<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 2(4):e2025JH000819 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2126<\/span><\/li><li>Uttarwar SB, Lerch S, Avesani D, Majone B (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.advwatres.2025.105061\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Performance assessment of neural network models for seasonal weather forecast postprocessing in the Alpine region<\/span><\/a>, Advances in Water Resources, 204:105061 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2127<\/span><\/li><li>Brehmer JR, Kraus K, Gneiting T, Herrmann M, Marzocchi W (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1785\/0220240209\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts\u2014An application to Italy<\/span><\/a>, Seismological Research Letters, 96(3):1966\u20131988 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1893<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, Ne\u030cmcov\u00e1 B (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/sjos.12784\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A unifying class of compound Poisson integer\u2010valued ARMA and GARCH models<\/span><\/a>, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 52(3):1176\u20131205 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2124<\/span><\/li><li>Haag J, Jordan AI, Stamatakis A (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/bioadv\/vbaf040\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Pandora: a tool to estimate dimensionality reduction stability of genotype data<\/span><\/a>, Bioinformatics Advances, 5(1):vbaf040 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2094<\/span><\/li><li>Amaral AVR, Wolffram D, Moraga P, Bracher J (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012836\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 21(3):e1012836 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2119<\/span><\/li><li>Ulanov E, Qadir GA, Riedmiller K, Friederich P, Gr\u00e4ter F (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1039\/D4DD00174E\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Predicting hydrogen atom transfer energy barriers using Gaussian process regression<\/span><\/a>, Digital Discovery, 4(2):513\u2013522 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1987<\/span><\/li><li>Qadir GA, Sun Y (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5705\/ss.202022.0064\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Modeling and predicting spatio-temporal dynamics of PM_2.5 concentrations through time-evolving covariance models<\/span><\/a>, Statistica Sinica, 35:1649\u20131669 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1702<\/span><\/li><li>Nag P, Hong Y, Abdulah S, Qadir GA, Genton MG, Sun Y (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/10618600.2024.2402277\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Efficient large-scale nonstationary spatial covariance function estimation using convolutional neural networks<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 34(2):683\u2013696 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1868<\/span><\/li><li>Horat N, Klerings S, Lerch S (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00376-024-4219-2\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Improving model chain approaches for probabilistic solar energy forecasting through post-processing and machine learning<\/span><\/a>, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 42(2):297\u2013312 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1900<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, Littek JM (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnae116\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A statistical assessment of influenza intensity thresholds from the moving epidemic and WHO methods<\/span><\/a>, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 188(4):1203\u20131230 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2135<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2024\">2024<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Dimitriadis T, Patton AJ, Schmidt PW (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/rest_a_01535\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Testing forecast rationality for measures of central tendency<\/span><\/a>, Review of Economics and Statistics:1-45 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2122<\/span><\/li><li>Mockert F, Grams CM, Lerch S, Osman M, Quinting J (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.4840\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Multivariate post\u2010processing of probabilistic sub\u2010seasonal weather regime forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,150(765):4771\u20134787 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1891<\/span><\/li><li>Walz E, Knippertz P, Fink AH, K\u00f6hler G, Gneiting T (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-24-0005.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Physics-based vs. data-driven 24-hour probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for northern tropical Africa<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 152(9):2011\u20132031 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1845<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Gneiting T, Jordan AI, Vogel P (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2023.09.007\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptych<\/span><\/a>, International Journal of Forecasting, 40(3):1101\u20131122 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1735<\/span><\/li><li>Lopez VK, Cramer EY, Pagano R, Drake JM, O&#8217;Dea EB, Adee M, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller PP, Xiao J, Bracher J, Castro\u00a0Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Le K, M\u00fchlemann A, Niemi J, Ray EL, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana TK, Tarasewicz SR, Wilson DJ, Baccam S, Gurung H, Stage S, Suchoski B, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang L, Wang Y, Yu S, Gardner L, Jindal S, Marshall M, Nixon K, Dent J, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Smith CP, Truelove S, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Karlen D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud IJ, Osthus D, Bian J, Cao W, Gao Z, Lavista\u00a0Ferres J, Li C, Liu T, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastory\u00a0y\u00a0Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Walraven R, Chen J, Gu Q, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Gibson GC, Sheldon D, Srivastava A, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis B, Marathe M, Peddireddy AS, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Wang L, Prasad PV, Walker JW, Webber AE, Slayton RB, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG, Johansson MA (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011200\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020\u20132021<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 20(5):e1011200 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1843<\/span><\/li><li>Bosse NI, Abbott S, Bracher J, van\u00a0Leeuwen E, Cori A, Funk S (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.19380.2\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK<\/span><\/a>, Wellcome Open Research, 8:416 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2136<\/span><\/li><li>Fosten J, Gutknecht D, Pohle M (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.2024.2316091\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Testing quantile forecast optimality<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Business &amp; Economic Statistics, 42(4):1367\u20131378 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1786<\/span><\/li><li>Horat N, Lerch S (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-23-0150.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Deep learning for postprocessing global probabilistic forecasts on subseasonal time scales<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 152(3):667\u2013687 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1825<\/span><\/li><li>Song M, Yang D, Lerch S, Xia X, Yagli GM, Bright JM, Shen Y, Liu B, Liu X, Mayer MJ (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00376-023-3184-5\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Non-crossing quantile regression neural network as a calibration tool for ensemble weather forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 41(7):1417\u20131437 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1826<\/span><\/li><li>Walz E, Henzi A, Ziegel J, Gneiting T (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1137\/22M1541915\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Easy uncertainty quantification (EasyUQ): Generating predictive distributions from single-valued model output<\/span><\/a>, SIAM Review, 66(1):91\u2013122 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1782<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, Koster N, Kr\u00fcger F, Lerch S (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00031305.2023.2199800\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Learning to forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge<\/span><\/a>, The American Statistician, 78(1):115\u2013127 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1660<\/span><\/li><li>Brehmer JR, Gneiting T, Herrmann M, Marzocchi W, Schlather M, Strokorb K (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10463-023-00875-5\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 76:47\u201371 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1692<\/span><\/li><li>Maltsev K, Schneider F, R\u00f6pke F, Jordan A, Qadir G, Kerzendorf W, Riedmiller K, Smagt Pvd (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/0004-6361\/202347118\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Scalable stellar evolution forecasting \u2014 Deep learning emulation versus hierarchical nearest-neighbor interpolation<\/span><\/a>, Astronomy &#038; Astrophysics, 681:A86 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2040<\/span><\/li><li>Arnold S, Walz E, Ziegel J, Gneiting T (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/24-EJS2316\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Decompositions of the mean continuous ranked probability score<\/span><\/a>, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 18(2):4992\u20135044 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1890<\/span><\/li><li>H\u00f6hlein K, Schulz B, Westermann R, Lerch S (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/AIES-D-23-0070.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts using permutation-invariant neural networks<\/span><\/a>, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 3(1):e230070 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1892<\/span><\/li><li>Podsztavek O, Jordan AI, Tvrd\u00edk P, Polsterer K (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.14428\/esann\/2024.ES2024-15\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Automatic miscalibration diagnosis: Interpreting probability integral transform (PIT) histograms<\/span><\/a>, ESANN 2024 proceedings,137\u2013142 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2038<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Fissler T, Ziegel J (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00362-023-01428-x\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Osband\u2019s principle for identification functions<\/span><\/a>, Statistical Papers, 65(2):1125\u20131132 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2123<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2023\">2023<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Brockhaus EK, Wolffram D, Stadler T, Osthege M, Mitra T, Littek JM, Krymova E, Klesen AJ, Huisman JS, Heyder S, Helleckes LM, an\u00a0der\u00a0Heiden M, Funk S, Abbott S, Bracher J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011653\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Why are different estimates of the effective reproductive number so different? A case study on COVID-19 in Germany<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 19(11):e1011653 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1811<\/span><\/li><li>Rasheeda\u00a0Satheesh A, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Walz E, Gneiting T (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.4581\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Sources of predictability of synoptic\u2010scale rainfall during the West African summer monsoon<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149(757):3721\u20133737 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1720<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, R\u00fcter L, Kr\u00fcger F, Lerch S, Schienle M (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03050629.2023.2255923\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Direction augmentation in the evaluation of armed conflict predictions<\/span><\/a>, International Interactions, 49(6):989\u20131004 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1810<\/span><\/li><li>Bosse NI, Abbott S, Cori A, van\u00a0Leeuwen E, Bracher J, Funk S (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011393\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Scoring epidemiological forecasts on transformed scales<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 19(8):e1011393 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1721<\/span><\/li><li>Wolffram D, Abbott S, an\u00a0der\u00a0Heiden M, Funk S, G\u00fcnther F, Hailer D, Heyder S, Hotz T, van\u00a0de\u00a0Kassteele J, K\u00fcchenhoff H, M\u00fcller-Hansen S, Syliqi D, Ullrich A, Weigert M, Schienle M, Bracher J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011394\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 19(8):e1011394 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1722<\/span><\/li><li>Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J, Cramer EY, Funk S, Gerding A, Johansson MA, Rumack A, Wang Y, Zorn M, Tibshirani RJ, Reich NG (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2022.06.005\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States<\/span><\/a>, International Journal of Forecasting, 39(3):1366\u20131383 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1691<\/span><\/li><li>Resin J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jmlr.org\/papers\/v24\/23-0106.html\"><span class=\"publication-title\">From classification accuracy to proper scoring rules: Elicitability of probabilistic top list predictions<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Machine Learning Research, 24(173):1\u201321 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1681<\/span><\/li><li>Bettisworth B, Jordan AI, Stamatakis A (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11222-023-10246-y\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Phylourny: Efficiently calculating elimination tournament win probabilities via phylogenetic methods<\/span><\/a>, Statistics and Computing, 33(4):80 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2039<\/span><\/li><li>Resin J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/10618600.2022.2102026\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A simple algorithm for exact multinomial tests<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 32(2):539\u2013550 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1504<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Liu X, Schnaitmann J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jjfinec\/nbab004\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multistep forecasts based on inference on the boundary<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 21(2):412\u2013444 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1381<\/span><\/li><li>Hoga Y, Dimitriadis T (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.2021.2021923\"><span class=\"publication-title\">On testing equal conditional predictive ability under measurement error<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Business &#038; Economic Statistics, 41(2):364\u2013376 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1439<\/span><\/li><li>Tempest KI, Craig GC, Brehmer JR (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.4410\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Convergence of forecast distributions in a 100,000\u2010member idealised convective\u2010scale ensemble<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149(752):677\u2013702 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1569<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Wolffram D, Resin J, Kraus K, Bracher J, Dimitriadis T, Hagenmeyer V, Jordan AI, Lerch S, Phipps K, Schienle M (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev-statistics-032921-020240\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles<\/span><\/a>, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 10:597\u2013621 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1549<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Lerch S, Schulz B (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.solener.2022.12.054\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic solar forecasting: Benchmarks, post-processing, verification<\/span><\/a>, Solar Energy, 252:72\u201380 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1571<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Resin J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/23-EJS2180\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Regression diagnostics meets forecast evaluation: Conditional calibration, reliability diagrams, and coefficient of determination<\/span><\/a>, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 17(2):3226\u20133286 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1813<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2022\">2022<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, G\u00f6rgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fiedler J, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Leith\u00e4user N, Li ML, Meinke JH, Miasojedow B, Michaud IJ, Mohring J, Nouvellet P, Nowosielski JM, O\u017ca\u0144ski T, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s43856-022-00191-8\"><span class=\"publication-title\">National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021<\/span><\/a>, Communications Medicine, 2:136 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1548<\/span><\/li><li>Eisenstein L, Schulz B, Qadir GA, Pinto JG, Knippertz P (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/wcd-3-1157-2022\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest \u2013 Part 1: Method and case studies<\/span><\/a>, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3(4):1157\u20131182 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1539<\/span><\/li><li>Schanzer S, Koch M, Kiefer A, Jentke T, Veith M, Bracher F, Bracher J, M\u00fcller C (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.chemosphere.2022.135342\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Analysis of pesticide and persistent organic pollutant residues in German bats<\/span><\/a>, Chemosphere, 305:135342 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1812<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Walz E (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10994-021-06114-3\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) movies, universal ROC (UROC) curves, and coefficient of predictive ability (CPA)<\/span><\/a>, Machine Learning, 111:2769\u20132797 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1375<\/span><\/li><li>Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro\u00a0Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mody V, Mody V, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanchit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG, US\u2005COVID-19\u2005Forecast\u2005Hub\u2005Consortium  (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41597-022-01517-w\"><span class=\"publication-title\">The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset<\/span><\/a>, Scientific Data, 9:462 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1510<\/span><\/li><li>Bayer S, Dimitriadis T (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jjfinec\/nbaa013\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Regression-based expected shortfall backtesting<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 20(3):437\u2013471 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1405<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Vogel P (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10994-021-06115-2\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: Equivalences, beta model, and minimum distance estimation<\/span><\/a>, Machine Learning, 111:2147\u20132159 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1421<\/span><\/li><li>Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro\u00a0Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, (282\u00a0further\u00a0coauthors) , Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2113561119\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States<\/span><\/a>, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(15):e2113561119 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1475<\/span><\/li><li>Jordan AI, M\u00fchlemann A, Ziegel JF (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10463-021-00808-0\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Characterizing the optimal solutions to the isotonic regression problem for identifiable functionals<\/span><\/a>, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 74:489\u2013514 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1368<\/span><\/li><li>Schulz B, Lerch S (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-21-0150.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts: A systematic comparison<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 150(1):235\u2013257 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1379<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2021\">2021<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Bracher J, Wolffram D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1515\/dmvm-2021-0073\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Vorhersagen sind schwer, vor allem die Zukunft betreffend: Kurzzeitprognosen in der Pandemie<\/span><\/a>, Mitteilungen der Deutschen Mathematiker-Vereinigung, 29(4):186\u2013190 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1429<\/span><\/li><li>Brehmer J (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1090\/bproc\/98\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A construction principle for proper scoring rules<\/span><\/a>, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, Series B, 8(24):297\u2013301 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1390<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, G\u00f6rgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gogolewski K, Gu Q, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Li ML, Meinke JH, Michaud IJ, Niedzielewski K, O\u017ca\u0144ski T, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Zieli\u0144ski J, Zou D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-021-25207-0\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave<\/span><\/a>, Nature Communications, 12:5173 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1367<\/span><\/li><li>Henzi A, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/rssb.12450\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Isotonic distributional regression<\/span><\/a>, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 83(5):963\u2013993 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1369<\/span><\/li><li>Schmidt P, Katzfuss M, Gneiting T (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2833\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(6):728\u2013743 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1370<\/span><\/li><li>Walz E, Maranan M, van\u2005der\u2005Linden R, Fink AH, Knippertz P (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/WAF-D-20-0233.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">An IMERG-based optimal extended probabilistic climatology (EPC) as a benchmark ensemble forecast for precipitation in the tropics and subtropics<\/span><\/a>, Weather and Forecasting, 36(4):1561\u20131573 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1420<\/span><\/li><li>Whan K, Zscheischler J, Jordan AI, Ziegel JF (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.wace.2021.100310\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Novel multivariate quantile mapping methods for ensemble post-processing of medium-range forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Weather and Climate Extremes, 32:100310 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1371<\/span><\/li><li>Vassella CC, Koch J, Henzi A, Jordan A, Waeber R, Iannaccone R, Charri\u00e8re R (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijheh.2021.113746\"><span class=\"publication-title\">From spontaneous to strategic natural window ventilation: Improving indoor air quality in Swiss schools<\/span><\/a>, International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 234:113746 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1363<\/span><\/li><li>Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3150\/20-BEJ1298\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Scoring interval forecasts: Equal-tailed, shortest, and modal interval<\/span><\/a>, Bernoulli, 27(3):1993\u20132010 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1372<\/span><\/li><li>Schulz B, Ayari ME, Lerch S, Baran S (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.solener.2021.03.023\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting<\/span><\/a>, Solar Energy, 220:1016\u20131031 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1380<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Schnaitmann J (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2020.07.008\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall<\/span><\/a>, International Journal of Forecasting, 37(2):604\u2013621 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1373<\/span><\/li><li>Dimitriadis T, Gneiting T, Jordan AI (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2016191118\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Stable reliability diagrams for probabilistic classifiers<\/span><\/a>, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(8):e2016191118 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1374<\/span><\/li><li>Bracher J, Ray EL, Gneiting T, Reich NG (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008618\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format<\/span><\/a>, PLOS Computational Biology, 17(2):e1008618 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1406<\/span><\/li><li>Vogel P, Knippertz P, Gneiting T, Fink AH, Klar M, Schlueter A (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2020GL091022\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Statistical forecasts for the occurrence of precipitation outperform global models over northern tropical Africa<\/span><\/a>, Geophysical Research Letters, 48(3):e2020GL091022 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1407<\/span><\/li><li>Baran \u00c1, Lerch S, Ayari ME, Baran S (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00521-020-05139-4\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction<\/span><\/a>, Neural Computing and Applications, 33(7):2605\u20132620 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1388<\/span><\/li><li>Kr\u00fcger F, Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir T, Gneiting T (2021). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/insr.12405\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Predictive inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output<\/span><\/a>, International Statistical Review, 89(2):274\u2013301 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1409<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2020\">2020<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2020). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10463-019-00705-7\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Properization: Constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts<\/span><\/a>, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 72:659\u2013673 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1004<\/span><\/li><li>Ziegel JF, Kr\u00fcger F, Jordan A, Fasciati F (2020). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jjfinec\/nby035\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Robust forecast evaluation of expected shortfall<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Financial Econometrics,18(1):95\u2013120 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1404<\/span><\/li><li>Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2020). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/WAF-D-20-0082.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall in the tropics<\/span><\/a>, Weather and Forecasting, 35(6):2367\u20132385 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1410<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2019\">2019<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Hemri S (2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-642-39925-1_19\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Multi-model combination and seamless prediction<\/span><\/a>, In Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Eds: Duan Q, Pappenberger F, Thielen J, Wood A, Cloke HL, Schaake JC, Springer-Verlag, pp. 285\u2013307 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">53<\/span><\/li><li>Feldmann K, Richardson DS, Gneiting T (2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2019GL083189\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Grid- versus station-based postprocessing of ensemble temperature forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Geophysical Research Letters, 46(13):7744\u20137751 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1005<\/span><\/li><li>Jordan A, Kr\u00fcger F, Lerch S (2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.18637\/jss.v090.i12\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Statistical Software, 90(12):1\u201337 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1006<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2018\">2018<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Arnault J, Rummler T, Baur F, Lerch S, Wagner S, Fersch B, Zhang Z, Kerandi N, Keil C, Kunstmann H (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0042.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty of terrestrial  water flow in WRF-Hydro: An ensemble analysis for  Central Europe<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19(6):1007\u20131025 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">338<\/span><\/li><li>Baran S, Lerch S (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2018.01.005\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts<\/span><\/a>, International Journal of Forecasting, 34(3):477\u2013496 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">339<\/span><\/li><li>Ehm W, Kr\u00fcger F (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/18-EJS1495\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization<\/span><\/a>, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 12(2):3758\u20133793 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">340<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Asher J, Carriquiry A, Davis R, Dawid AP, Efron B, Haberman S, Kou S, Newton M, Paddock S, Prewitt K, Raftery A, Stein M, Straf M (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/17-AOAS122ED\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Special section in memory of Stephen E. Fienberg (1942\u20132016) AOAS Editor-in-Chief 2013\u20132015<\/span><\/a>, Annals of Applied Statistics, 12(2):iii\u2013x <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">341<\/span><\/li><li>Pantillon F, Lerch S, Knippertz P, Corsmeier U (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.3380\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Forecasting wind gusts in winter storms using a calibrated convection\u2010permitting ensemble<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144(715):1864\u20131881 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">342<\/span><\/li><li>Rasp S, Lerch S (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-18-0187.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Neural networks for postprocessing ensemble weather forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 146(11):3885\u20133900 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">343<\/span><\/li><li>Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2018). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/WAF-D-17-0127.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall over northern tropical Africa<\/span><\/a>, Weather and Forecasting, 33(2):369\u2013388 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">344<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2017\">2017<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Ehm W, Ovcharov E (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/biomet\/asx004\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Bias-corrected score decomposition for generalized quantiles<\/span><\/a>, Biometrika, 104(2):473\u2013480 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">223<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sta4.148\"><span class=\"publication-title\">When is the mode functional the Bayes classifier?<\/span><\/a>, Stat, 6(1):204\u2013206 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">225<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S, Klein B (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2017WR020684\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Analog-based postprocessing of navigation-related hydrological ensemble forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Water Resources Research, 53(11):9059\u20139077 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">226<\/span><\/li><li>Lerch S, Baran S (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/rssc.12153\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Similarity-based semilocal estimation of post-processing models<\/span><\/a>, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(1):29\u201351 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">228<\/span><\/li><li>Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir TL, Ravazzolo F, Gneiting T (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/16-STS588\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Forecaster\u2019s dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation<\/span><\/a>, Statistical Science, 32(1):106\u2013127 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">229<\/span><\/li><li>Schmidt P (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/17-AOAS1041B\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Discussion of \u201cElicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation\u201d<\/span><\/a>, Annals of Applied Statistics, 11(4):1883\u20131885 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">230<\/span><\/li><li>Kr\u00fcger F (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00181-017-1228-3\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: Ensembles versus histograms<\/span><\/a>, Empirical Economics, 53(1):235\u2013246 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1391<\/span><\/li><li>Kr\u00fcger F, Clark TE, Ravazzolo F (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.2015.1087856\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Using entropic tilting to combine BVAR forecasts with external nowcasts<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Business &#038; Economic Statistics, 35(3):470\u2013485 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1392<\/span><\/li><li>Schefzik R (2017). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.2984\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Ensemble calibration with preserved correlations: Unifying and comparing ensemble copula coupling and member\u2010by\u2010member postprocessing<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703):999\u20131008 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1393<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2016\">2016<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Ehm W (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/9781118865064.ch7\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Reproducibility from the perspective of meta-analysis<\/span><\/a>, In Reproducibility: Principles, Problems, Practices, and Prospects, Eds: Atmanspacher H, Maasen S, Wiley, Hoboken, pp. 141\u2013167 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">129<\/span><\/li><li>Ehm W, Gneiting T, Jordan A, Krueger F (2016). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/24775351\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Of quantiles and expectiles: Consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings (with discussion and reply)<\/span><\/a>, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 78(3):505\u2013562 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">49<\/span><\/li><li>Baran S, Lerch S (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/env.2380\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed<\/span><\/a>, Environmetrics, 27(2):116\u2013130 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">128<\/span><\/li><li>Ehm W, Wackermann J (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jmp.2016.01.005\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Geometric\u2013optical illusions and Riemannian geometry<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 71:28\u201338 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">130<\/span><\/li><li>Elliott G, Ghanem D, Kr\u00fcger F (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/REST_a_00564\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Forecasting conditional probabilities of binary outcomes under misspecification<\/span><\/a>, Review of Economics and Statistics 98(4):742\u2013755 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">132<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S, Haiden T, Pappenberger F (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-15-0426.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Discrete postprocessing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 144(7):2565\u20132577 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">136<\/span><\/li><li>Kr\u00fcger F, Nolte I (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jbankfin.2015.05.007\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Banking &#038; Finance, 72:S172\u2013S186 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">138<\/span><\/li><li>Schefzik R (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-15-0227.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">A similarity-based implementation of the Schaake shuffle<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 144(5):1909\u20131921 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">141<\/span><\/li><li>Schefzik R (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.2839\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Combining parametric low\u2010dimensional ensemble postprocessing with reordering methods<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(699):2463\u20132477 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">142<\/span><\/li><li>Fissler T, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2016). <span class=\"publication-title\">Expected shortfall is jointly elicitable with value-at-risk: Implications for backtesting<\/span>, Risk Magazine, January:58\u201361 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">143<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2015\">2015<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Baran S, Lerch S (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/qj.2521\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Log\u2010normal distribution based ensemble model output statistics models for probabilistic wind\u2010speed forecasting<\/span><\/a>, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(691):2289\u20132299 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">48<\/span><\/li><li>Feldmann K, Scheuerer M, Thorarinsdottir TL (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-14-00210.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 143(3):955\u2013971 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">50<\/span><\/li><li>Hansen L, Thorarinsdottir T, Ovcharov E, Gneiting T, Richards D (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/43563426\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension<\/span><\/a>, Advances in Applied Probability, 47(2):307\u2013327 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">52<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2014WR016473\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting<\/span><\/a>, Water Resources Research, 51(9):7436\u20137451 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">54<\/span><\/li><li>Ovcharov E (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jmlr.org\/papers\/v16\/ovcharov15a.html\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Existence and uniqueness of proper scoring rules<\/span><\/a>, Journal of Machine Learning Research, 16(67):2207\u20132230 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">55<\/span><\/li><li>Schefzik R (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1512.05629\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Multivariate discrete copulas, with applications in probabilistic weather forecasting<\/span><\/a>, Publications de l&#8217;Institut de Statistique de l&#8217;Universit\u00e9 de Paris, 59:87\u2013116 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">57<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2014\">2014<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Richardson D, Hemri S, Bogner K, Gneiting T, Haiden T, Pappenberger F, Scheuerer M (2014). <span class=\"publication-title\">Calibration of ECMWF forecasts<\/span>, ECMWF Newsletter, 142:12\u201316 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">56<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2014). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.hywa-online.de\/ermittlung-probabilistischer-abflussvorhersagen-unter-beruecksichtigung-zensierter-daten\/\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Ermittlung probabilistischer Abflussvorhersagen unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung zensierter Daten<\/span><\/a>, Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 58(2):84\u201394 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1090<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S, Scheuerer M, Pappenberger F, Bogner K, Haiden T (2014). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2014GL062472\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts<\/span><\/a>, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(24):9197\u20139205 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1394<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Katzfuss M (2014). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev-statistics-062713-085831\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic forecasting<\/span><\/a>, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 1(1):125\u2013151 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1395<\/span><\/li><li>Scheuerer M, Gneiting T (2014). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-642-32408-6_4\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Evaluating predictive performance<\/span><\/a>, In Mathematics of Planet Earth, Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences, Eds: Pardo-Ig\u00fazquiza E, Guardiola-Albert C, Heredia J, Moreno-Merino L, Dur\u00e1n J, Vargas-Guzm\u00e1n J, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 15\u201318 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1396<\/span><\/li><li>Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2014). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/14-EJS964\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Copula calibration<\/span><\/a>, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 8(2):2619\u20132638 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1397<\/span><\/li><li>Dueck J, Edelmann D, Gneiting T, Richards D (2014). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3150\/13-BEJ558\"><span class=\"publication-title\">The affinely invariant distance correlation<\/span><\/a>, Bernoulli, 20(4):2305\u20132330 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1411<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2013\">2013<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Schefzik R, Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/13-STS443\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling<\/span><\/a>, Statistical Science, 28(4):616\u2013640 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1398<\/span><\/li><li>Sloughter JM, Gneiting T, Raftery AE (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-12-00002.1\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic wind vector forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging<\/span><\/a>, Monthly Weather Review, 141(6):2107\u20132119 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1400<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T, Ranjan R (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/13-EJS823\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Combining predictive distributions<\/span><\/a>, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 7:1747\u20131782 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1401<\/span><\/li><li>Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T, Gissibl N (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1137\/130907550\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models<\/span><\/a>, SIAM\/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification,1(1):522\u2013534 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1402<\/span><\/li><li>Grant K, Gneiting T (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/12-IMSCOLL912\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Consistent scoring functions for quantiles<\/span><\/a>, In From Probability to Statistics and Back: High-Dimensional Models and Processes \u2014 A Festschrift in Honor of Jon A. Wellner, Eds: Banerjee M, Bunea F, Huang J, Koltchinskii V, Maathuis MH, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, pp. 163\u2013173 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1403<\/span><\/li><li>Gneiting T (2013). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3150\/12-BEJSP06\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Strictly and non-strictly positive definite functions on spheres<\/span><\/a>, Bernoulli,19(4):1327\u20131349 <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1412<\/span><\/li><\/ul>            <\/div>\n                                <div class=\"hits-tabs--tab\">\n              <\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2025\">2025<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Wolffram D (2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000180950\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Collaborative disease forecasting in real-time: The role of nowcasting, ensemble models, and evaluation methods (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Economics and Management, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2076<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2024\">2024<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Walz E (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000170069\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Statistical methods for probabilistic forecasts of real-valued outcomes (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2019<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2023\">2023<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Schulz B (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000158905\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Statistical postprocessing of numerical weather prediction forecasts using machine learning (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2031<\/span><\/li><li>Resin J (2023). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000157953\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Model diagnostics meets forecast evaluation: Goodness-of-fit, calibration, and related topics (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">2030<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2022\">2022<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Feldmann K (2022). <a href=\"https:\/\/madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de\/63648\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Aspects of spatial postprocessing for global temperature forecasts (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, School of Business Informatics and Mathematics, University of Mannheim <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1570<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2020\">2020<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Brehmer JR (2020). <a href=\"https:\/\/madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de\/58080\/\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Theory and methodology of scoring functions: Tail properties, interval forecasts, and point processes (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, School of Business Informatics and Mathematics, University of Mannheim <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1343<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2019\">2019<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Vogel P (2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000091649\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Assessing predictive performance: From precipitation forecasts over the tropics to receiver operating characteristic curves and back (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1336<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2016\">2016<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Fiedler J (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.11588\/heidok.00022193\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Distances, Gegenbauer expansions, curls, and dimples: On dependence measures for random fields (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Heidelberg University <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">133<\/span><\/li><li>Hemri S (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000054702\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic forecasting based on hydrometeorological ensembles (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">135<\/span><\/li><li>Jordan A (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000063629\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Facets of forecast evaluation (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">137<\/span><\/li><li>Lerch S (2016). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5445\/IR\/1000055628\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment, with focus on extreme events (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">139<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h2 id=\"publication-year-2015\">2015<\/h2><ul class=\"publications-list\"><li>Schefzik R (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.11588\/HEIDOK.00018028\"><span class=\"publication-title\">Physically coherent probabilistic weather forecasts using multivariate discrete copula-based ensemble postprocessing methods (PhD Thesis)<\/span><\/a>, PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Heidelberg University <span style=\"color:#ddd; font-size:12px\">1415<\/span><\/li><\/ul>            <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":40715,"parent":36,"menu_order":8,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/group.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"hits-research-group":[1285],"class_list":["post-1278","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","hits-research-group-cst-de"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Publikationen - HITS gGmbH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.h-its.org\/de\/forschung\/cst\/publikationen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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