HITS Colloquium Sebastian Funk: Predicting the course of an epidemic: models, data, and their limits

by Sebastian Funk, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London

Predicting the course of an epidemic: models, data, and their limits

Every new infectious disease outbreak raises the same urgent, quantitative questions: how large is it really, where is it heading, how many hospital beds will be needed. These are prediction problems, and hard ones: most cases are typically not (yet) reported, the data that exist are sparse and noisy, and the processes that generate them are often only partly understood. Addressing these challenges usually means combining human expertise with computation.

Drawing on experiences from COVID-19 and other outbreaks, I will look at how well mathematical models can predict the course of an epidemic, including how we can draw on multiple models, how far ahead forecasts stay useful for the decisions they are meant to inform, and what ultimately limits how good they can be. I will finish by looking ahead to what could make us readier for future epidemics.

REGISTRATION:

The talk will be hybrid.

If you would like to participate online, please register in advance here.

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

In case you are not able to attend, you can watch the talk afterwards on the HITS YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheHITSters.