When we are talking about forecasting, most of us associate it with the weather, come rain or shine. However, forecasting is also a big issue in the economic sector, where forecasts inform the decisions of policymakers, businesses and consumers alike. On June 6, 2016, the Computational Statistics (CST) group at HITS (group leader: Prof. Tilmann Gneiting) hosted a workshop on “Advances in Economic Forecasting”.
After the welcome by Dr. Fabian Krüger (CST group member) in the Studio Villa Bosch, 17 experts discussed different aspects of forecasting, focusing on recent techniques for combining and evaluating forecasts. One of the crucial topics was how probabilistic forecasting can help to predict macroeconomic developments, and provide realistic assessments of the associated forecast uncertainty.
The Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS) was established in 2010 by the physicist and SAP co-founder Klaus Tschira (1940-2015) and the Klaus Tschira Foundation as a private, non-profit research institute. HITS conducts basic research in the natural sciences, mathematics and computer science, with a focus on the processing, structuring, and analyzing of large amounts of complex data and the development of computational methods and software. The research fields range from molecular biology to astrophysics. The shareholders of HITS are the HITS-Stiftung, which is a subsidiary of the Klaus Tschira Foundation, Heidelberg University and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). HITS also cooperates with other universities and research institutes and with industrial partners. The base funding of HITS is provided by the HITS Stiftung with funds received from the Klaus Tschira Foundation. The primary external funding agencies are the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the German Research Foundation (DFG), and the European Union.