Tutorial session.

The science of forecasting: Models and data instead of crystal balls

6. October 2017

“Summer School” in Heidelberg in the framework of the “ScienceFore” Project, led by Tilmann Gneiting (HITS). The project is funded by ERC Advanced grant from the European Union.

Group photo in the garden of the Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg (Photo: HITS)

“Que sera, sera”: The future being uncertain, forecasts ought to be probabilistic in nature, taking the form of probability distributions over future quantities or events. Accordingly, a transdisciplinary transition from point forecasts to probabilistic forecasts is well under way. The ScienceFore project led by HITS group leader Tilmann Gneiting (CST) seeks to provide guidance and leadership in this transition, by developing the theoretical foundations of the science of forecasting, as well as cutting-edge statistical methodology, along with applications in meteorology and economics. ScienceFore is supported by an Advanced ERC grant from the European Research Council (ERC).

From October 3-6, 2017, the CST Group organized the “ScienceFore Summer School” in the International Academic Forum Heidelberg, together with HITS alumnus Fabian Krüger (Heidelberg University).

About 40 participants from four continents discussed topics like forecast evaluation, forecasting across the disciplines or statistical postprocessing. Invited speakers were Tom Hamill and Michael Scheuerer from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, Boulder / Colorado), Thordis Thorarinsdottir (Norwegian Computer Center) and Barbara Rossi (Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona/Spain).

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290976.

Sebastian Lerch chairing a software tutorial
Hands on the keyboards, eyes on the screen: During the software tutorial.
Tutorial session.
Tutorial session.
Q & A during a scientific session.
Michael Scheuerer during his talk on “Statistical Postprocessing”.
The organizers of the ScienceFore Summer School (f.l.t.r.): Patrick Schmidt, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Vogel, Kira Feldmann, Fabian Krüger, Alexander Jordan, Tilmann Gneiting. (all photos: HITS)

About HITS

The Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS) was established in 2010 by the physicist and SAP co-founder Klaus Tschira (1940-2015) and the Klaus Tschira Foundation as a private, non-profit research institute. HITS conducts basic research in the natural sciences, mathematics and computer science, with a focus on the processing, structuring, and analyzing of large amounts of complex data and the development of computational methods and software. The research fields range from molecular biology to astrophysics. The shareholders of HITS are the HITS-Stiftung, which is a subsidiary of the Klaus Tschira Foundation, Heidelberg University and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). HITS also cooperates with other universities and research institutes and with industrial partners. The base funding of HITS is provided by the HITS Stiftung with funds received from the Klaus Tschira Foundation. The primary external funding agencies are the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the German Research Foundation (DFG), and the European Union.