Publications
2025 Brehmer JR, Kraus K, Gneiting T, Herrmann M, Marzocchi W (2025). Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts—An application to Italy 1893 Amaral AVR, Wolffram D, Moraga P, Bracher J (2025). Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts 2048 Ulanov E, Qadir GA, Riedmiller K, Friederich P, Gräter F (2025). Predicting hydrogen atom transfer energy barriers using Gaussian process regression 1987 Qadir GA, Sun Y (2025). Modeling and predicting spatio-temporal dynamics of PM_2.5 concentrations through time-evolving covariance models 1702 Nag P, Hong Y, Abdulah S, Qadir GA, Genton MG, Sun Y (2025). Efficient large-scale nonstationary spatial covariance function estimation using convolutional neural networks 1868 2024 Horat N, Klerings S, Lerch S (2024). Improving model chain approaches for probabilistic solar energy forecasting through post-processing and machine learning 1900 Mockert F, Grams CM, Lerch S, Osman M, Quinting J (2024). Multivariate post‐processing of probabilistic sub‐seasonal weather regime forecasts 1891 Walz E, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Köhler G, Gneiting T (2024). Physics-based vs. data-driven 24-hour probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for northern tropical Africa 1845 Dimitriadis T, Gneiting T, Jordan AI, Vogel P (2024). Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptych 1735 Lopez VK, Cramer EY, Pagano R, Drake JM, O’Dea EB, Adee M, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller PP, Xiao J, Bracher J, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Ray EL, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana TK, Tarasewicz SR, Wilson DJ, Baccam S, Gurung H, Stage S, Suchoski B, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang L, Wang Y, Yu S, Gardner L, Jindal S, Marshall M, Nixon K, Dent J, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Smith CP, Truelove S, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Karlen D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud IJ, Osthus D, Bian J, Cao W, Gao Z, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu T, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastory y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Walraven R, Chen J, Gu Q, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Gibson GC, Sheldon D, Srivastava A, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis B, Marathe M, Peddireddy AS, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Wang L, Prasad PV, Walker JW, Webber AE, Slayton RB, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG, Johansson MA (2024). Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020–2021 1843 Fosten J, Gutknecht D, Pohle M (2024). Testing quantile forecast optimality 1786 Horat N, Lerch S (2024). Deep learning for postprocessing global probabilistic forecasts on subseasonal time scales 1825 Song M, Yang D, Lerch S, Xia X, Yagli GM, Bright JM, Shen Y, Liu B, Liu X, Mayer MJ (2024). Non-crossing quantile regression neural network as a calibration tool for ensemble weather forecasts 1826 Walz E, Henzi A, Ziegel J, Gneiting T (2024). Easy uncertainty quantification (EasyUQ): Generating predictive distributions from single-valued model output 1782 Bracher J, Koster N, Krüger F, Lerch S (2024). Learning to forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge 1660 Brehmer JR, Gneiting T, Herrmann M, Marzocchi W, Schlather M, Strokorb K (2024). Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts 1692 Maltsev K, Schneider F, Röpke F, Jordan A, Qadir G, Kerzendorf W, Riedmiller K, Smagt Pvd (2024). Scalable stellar evolution forecasting — Deep learning emulation versus hierarchical nearest-neighbor interpolation 2040 Arnold S, Walz E, Ziegel J, Gneiting T (2024). Decompositions of the mean continuous ranked probability score 1890 Höhlein K, Schulz B, Westermann R, Lerch S (2024). Postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts using permutation-invariant neural networks 1892 Podsztavek O, Jordan AI, Tvrdík P, Polsterer K (2024). Automatic miscalibration diagnosis: Interpreting probability integral transform (PIT) histograms 2038 2023 Brockhaus EK, Wolffram D, Stadler T, Osthege M, Mitra T, Littek JM, Krymova E, Klesen AJ, Huisman JS, Heyder S, Helleckes LM, an der Heiden M, Funk S, Abbott S, Bracher J (2023). Why are different estimates of the effective reproductive number so different? A case study on COVID-19 in Germany 1811 Rasheeda Satheesh A, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Walz E, Gneiting T (2023). Sources of predictability of synoptic‐scale rainfall during the West African summer monsoon 1720 Bracher J, Rüter L, Krüger F, Lerch S, Schienle M (2023). Direction augmentation in the evaluation of armed conflict predictions 1810 Bosse NI, Abbott S, Cori A, van Leeuwen E, Bracher J, Funk S (2023). Scoring epidemiological forecasts on transformed scales 1721 Wolffram D, Abbott S, an der Heiden M, Funk S, Günther F, Hailer D, Heyder S, Hotz T, van de Kassteele J, Küchenhoff H, Müller-Hansen S, Syliqi D, Ullrich A, Weigert M, Schienle M, Bracher J (2023). Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany 1722 Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J, Cramer EY, Funk S, Gerding A, Johansson MA, Rumack A, Wang Y, Zorn M, Tibshirani RJ, Reich NG (2023). Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States 1691 Resin J (2023). From classification accuracy to proper scoring rules: Elicitability of probabilistic top list predictions 1681 Bettisworth B, Jordan AI, Stamatakis A (2023). Phylourny: Efficiently calculating elimination tournament win probabilities via phylogenetic methods 2039 Resin J (2023). A simple algorithm for exact multinomial tests 1504 Dimitriadis T, Liu X, Schnaitmann J (2023). Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multistep forecasts based on inference on the boundary 1381 Hoga Y, Dimitriadis T (2023). On testing equal conditional predictive ability under measurement error 1439 Tempest KI, Craig GC, Brehmer JR (2023). Convergence of forecast distributions in a 100,000‐member idealised convective‐scale ensemble 1569 Gneiting T, Wolffram D, Resin J, Kraus K, Bracher J, Dimitriadis T, Hagenmeyer V, Jordan AI, Lerch S, Phipps K, Schienle M (2023). Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles 1549 Gneiting T, Lerch S, Schulz B (2023). Probabilistic solar forecasting: Benchmarks, post-processing, verification 1571 Gneiting T, Resin J (2023). Regression diagnostics meets forecast evaluation: Conditional calibration, reliability diagrams, and coefficient of determination 1813 2022 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fiedler J, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Leithäuser N, Li ML, Meinke JH, Miasojedow B, Michaud IJ, Mohring J, Nouvellet P, Nowosielski JM, Ożański T, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2022). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021 1548 Eisenstein L, Schulz B, Qadir GA, Pinto JG, Knippertz P (2022). Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies 1539 Schanzer S, Koch M, Kiefer A, Jentke T, Veith M, Bracher F, Bracher J, Müller C (2022). Analysis of pesticide and persistent organic pollutant residues in German bats 1812 Gneiting T, Walz E (2022). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) movies, universal ROC (UROC) curves, and coefficient of predictive ability (CPA) 1375 Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mody V, Mody V, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanchit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG, US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium (2022). The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset 1510 Bayer S, Dimitriadis T (2022). Regression-based expected shortfall backtesting 1405 Gneiting T, Vogel P (2022). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: Equivalences, beta model, and minimum distance estimation 1421 Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, (282 further coauthors) , Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States 1475 Jordan AI, Mühlemann A, Ziegel JF (2022). Characterizing the optimal solutions to the isotonic regression problem for identifiable functionals 1368 Schulz B, Lerch S (2022). Machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts: A systematic comparison 1379 2021 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). Vorhersagen sind schwer, vor allem die Zukunft betreffend: Kurzzeitprognosen in der Pandemie 1429 Brehmer J (2021). A construction principle for proper scoring rules 1390 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gogolewski K, Gu Q, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Li ML, Meinke JH, Michaud IJ, Niedzielewski K, Ożański T, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Zieliński J, Zou D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave 1367 Henzi A, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2021). Isotonic distributional regression 1369 Schmidt P, Katzfuss M, Gneiting T (2021). Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive 1370 Walz E, Maranan M, van der Linden R, Fink AH, Knippertz P (2021). An IMERG-based optimal extended probabilistic climatology (EPC) as a benchmark ensemble forecast for precipitation in the tropics and subtropics 1420 Whan K, Zscheischler J, Jordan AI, Ziegel JF (2021). Novel multivariate quantile mapping methods for ensemble post-processing of medium-range forecasts 1371 Vassella CC, Koch J, Henzi A, Jordan A, Waeber R, Iannaccone R, Charrière R (2021). From spontaneous to strategic natural window ventilation: Improving indoor air quality in Swiss schools 1363 Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2021). Scoring interval forecasts: Equal-tailed, shortest, and modal interval 1372 Schulz B, Ayari ME, Lerch S, Baran S (2021). Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting 1380 Dimitriadis T, Schnaitmann J (2021). Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall 1373 Dimitriadis T, Gneiting T, Jordan AI (2021). Stable reliability diagrams for probabilistic classifiers 1374 Bracher J, Ray EL, Gneiting T, Reich NG (2021). Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format 1406 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Gneiting T, Fink AH, Klar M, Schlueter A (2021). Statistical forecasts for the occurrence of precipitation outperform global models over northern tropical Africa 1407 Baran Á, Lerch S, Ayari ME, Baran S (2021). Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction 1388 Krüger F, Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir T, Gneiting T (2021). Predictive inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output 1409 2020 Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2020). Properization: Constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts 1004 Ziegel JF, Krüger F, Jordan A, Fasciati F (2020). Robust forecast evaluation of expected shortfall 1404 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2020). Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall in the tropics 1410 2019 Feldmann K, Richardson DS, Gneiting T (2019). Grid- versus station-based postprocessing of ensemble temperature forecasts 1005 Hemri S (2019). Multi-model combination and seamless prediction 53 Jordan A, Krüger F, Lerch S (2019). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules 1006 2018 Arnault J, Rummler T, Baur F, Lerch S, Wagner S, Fersch B, Zhang Z, Kerandi N, Keil C, Kunstmann H (2018). Precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty of terrestrial water flow in WRF-Hydro: An ensemble analysis for Central Europe 338 Baran S, Lerch S (2018). Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts 339 Ehm W, Krüger F (2018). Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization 340 Gneiting T, Asher J, Carriquiry A, Davis R, Dawid AP, Efron B, Haberman S, Kou S, Newton M, Paddock S, Prewitt K, Raftery A, Stein M, Straf M (2018). Special section in memory of Stephen E. Fienberg (1942–2016) AOAS Editor-in-Chief 2013–2015 341 Pantillon F, Lerch S, Knippertz P, Corsmeier U (2018). Forecasting wind gusts in winter storms using a calibrated convection‐permitting ensemble 342 Rasp S, Lerch S (2018). Neural networks for postprocessing ensemble weather forecasts 343 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2018). Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall over northern tropical Africa 344 2017 Ehm W, Ovcharov E (2017). Bias-corrected score decomposition for generalized quantiles 223 Gneiting T (2017). When is the mode functional the Bayes classifier? 225 Hemri S, Klein B (2017). Analog-based postprocessing of navigation-related hydrological ensemble forecasts 226 Lerch S, Baran S (2017). Similarity-based semilocal estimation of post-processing models 228 Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir TL, Ravazzolo F, Gneiting T (2017). Forecaster’s dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation 229 Schmidt P (2017). Discussion of “Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation” 230 Krüger F (2017). Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: Ensembles versus histograms 1391 Krüger F, Clark TE, Ravazzolo F (2017). Using entropic tilting to combine BVAR forecasts with external nowcasts 1392 Schefzik R (2017). Ensemble calibration with preserved correlations: Unifying and comparing ensemble copula coupling and member‐by‐member postprocessing 1393 2016 Ehm W (2016). Reproducibility from the perspective of meta-analysis 129 Elliott G, Ghanem D, Krüger F (2016). Forecasting conditional probabilities of binary outcomes under misspecification 132 Ehm W, Gneiting T, Jordan A, Krueger F (2016). Of quantiles and expectiles: Consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings (with discussion and reply) 49 Baran S, Lerch S (2016). Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed 128 Ehm W, Wackermann J (2016). Geometric–optical illusions and Riemannian geometry 130 Hemri S, Haiden T, Pappenberger F (2016). Discrete postprocessing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts 136 Krüger F, Nolte I (2016). Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts 138 Schefzik R (2016). A similarity-based implementation of the Schaake shuffle 141 Schefzik R (2016). Combining parametric low‐dimensional ensemble postprocessing with reordering methods 142 Fissler T, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2016). Expected shortfall is jointly elicitable with value-at-risk: Implications for backtesting , Risk Magazine, January:58–61 143 2015 Baran S, Lerch S (2015). Log‐normal distribution based ensemble model output statistics models for probabilistic wind‐speed forecasting 48 Feldmann K, Scheuerer M, Thorarinsdottir TL (2015). Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression 50 Hansen L, Thorarinsdottir T, Ovcharov E, Gneiting T, Richards D (2015). Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension 52 Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2015). Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting 54 Ovcharov E (2015). Existence and uniqueness of proper scoring rules 55 Schefzik R (2015). Multivariate discrete copulas, with applications in probabilistic weather forecasting 57 2014 Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2014). Ermittlung probabilistischer Abflussvorhersagen unter Berücksichtigung zensierter Daten 1090 Richardson D, Hemri S, Bogner K, Gneiting T, Haiden T, Pappenberger F, Scheuerer M (2014). Calibration of ECMWF forecasts , ECMWF Newsletter, 142:12–16 56 Hemri S, Scheuerer M, Pappenberger F, Bogner K, Haiden T (2014). Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts 1394 Gneiting T, Katzfuss M (2014). Probabilistic forecasting 1395 Scheuerer M, Gneiting T (2014). Evaluating predictive performance 1396 Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2014). Copula calibration 1397 Dueck J, Edelmann D, Gneiting T, Richards D (2014). The affinely invariant distance correlation 1411 2013 Schefzik R, Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T (2013). Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling 1398 Sloughter JM, Gneiting T, Raftery AE (2013). Probabilistic wind vector forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging 1400 Gneiting T, Ranjan R (2013). Combining predictive distributions 1401 Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T, Gissibl N (2013). Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models 1402 Grant K, Gneiting T (2013). Consistent scoring functions for quantiles 1403 Gneiting T (2013). Strictly and non-strictly positive definite functions on spheres 1412
2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2016 Fiedler J (2016). Distances, Gegenbauer expansions, curls, and dimples: On dependence measures for random fields (Doctoral Thesis) 133 Hemri S (2016). Probabilistic forecasting based on hydrometeorological ensembles (Doctoral Thesis) 135 Jordan A (2016). Facets of forecast evaluation (Doctoral Thesis) 137 Lerch S (2016). Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment, with focus on extreme events (Doctoral Thesis) 139 2015
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