Publications
2023 Resin J (2023). From classification accuracy to proper scoring rules: Elicitability of probabilistic top list predictions 1681 Resin J (2023). A simple algorithm for exact multinomial tests 1504 Bracher J, Koster N, Krüger F, Lerch S (2023). Learning to forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge 1660 Dimitriadis T, Liu X, Schnaitmann J (2023). Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multistep forecasts based on inference on the boundary 1381 Hoga Y, Dimitriadis T (2023). On testing equal conditional predictive ability under measurement error 1439 Tempest KI, Craig GC, Brehmer JR (2023). Convergence of forecast distributions in a 100,000‐member idealised convective‐scale ensemble 1569 Gneiting T, Wolffram D, Resin J, Kraus K, Bracher J, Dimitriadis T, Hagenmeyer V, Jordan AI, Lerch S, Phipps K, Schienle M (2023). Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles 1549 Gneiting T, Lerch S, Schulz B (2023). Probabilistic solar forecasting: Benchmarks, post-processing, verification 1571 2022 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fiedler J, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Leithäuser N, Li ML, Meinke JH, Miasojedow B, Michaud IJ, Mohring J, Nouvellet P, Nowosielski JM, Ożański T, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2022). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021 1548 Eisenstein L, Schulz B, Qadir GA, Pinto JG, Knippertz P (2022). Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies 1539 Gneiting T, Walz E (2022). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) movies, universal ROC (UROC) curves, and coefficient of predictive ability (CPA) 1375 Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mody V, Mody V, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanchit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG, US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium (2022). The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset 1510 Bayer S, Dimitriadis T (2022). Regression-based expected shortfall backtesting 1405 Gneiting T, Vogel P (2022). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: Equivalences, beta model, and minimum distance estimation 1421 Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, (282 further coauthors) , Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States 1475 Jordan AI, Mühlemann A, Ziegel JF (2022). Characterizing the optimal solutions to the isotonic regression problem for identifiable functionals 1368 Schulz B, Lerch S (2022). Machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts: A systematic comparison 1379 2021 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). Vorhersagen sind schwer, vor allem die Zukunft betreffend: Kurzzeitprognosen in der Pandemie 1429 Brehmer J (2021). A construction principle for proper scoring rules 1390 Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gogolewski K, Gu Q, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Li ML, Meinke JH, Michaud IJ, Niedzielewski K, Ożański T, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Zieliński J, Zou D, Gneiting T, Schienle M (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave 1367 Henzi A, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2021). Isotonic distributional regression 1369 Schmidt P, Katzfuss M, Gneiting T (2021). Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive 1370 Walz E, Maranan M, van der Linden R, Fink AH, Knippertz P (2021). An IMERG-based optimal extended probabilistic climatology (EPC) as a benchmark ensemble forecast for precipitation in the tropics and subtropics 1420 Whan K, Zscheischler J, Jordan AI, Ziegel JF (2021). Novel multivariate quantile mapping methods for ensemble post-processing of medium-range forecasts 1371 Vassella CC, Koch J, Henzi A, Jordan A, Waeber R, Iannaccone R, Charrière R (2021). From spontaneous to strategic natural window ventilation: Improving indoor air quality in Swiss schools 1363 Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2021). Scoring interval forecasts: Equal-tailed, shortest, and modal interval 1372 Schulz B, Ayari ME, Lerch S, Baran S (2021). Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting 1380 Dimitriadis T, Schnaitmann J (2021). Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall 1373 Dimitriadis T, Gneiting T, Jordan AI (2021). Stable reliability diagrams for probabilistic classifiers 1374 Bracher J, Ray EL, Gneiting T, Reich NG (2021). Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format 1406 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Gneiting T, Fink AH, Klar M, Schlueter A (2021). Statistical forecasts for the occurrence of precipitation outperform global models over northern tropical Africa 1407 Baran Á, Lerch S, Ayari ME, Baran S (2021). Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction 1388 Krüger F, Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir T, Gneiting T (2021). Predictive inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output 1409 2020 Brehmer JR, Gneiting T (2020). Properization: Constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts 1004 Ziegel JF, Krüger F, Jordan A, Fasciati F (2020). Robust forecast evaluation of expected shortfall 1404 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2020). Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall in the tropics 1410 2019 Feldmann K, Richardson DS, Gneiting T (2019). Grid- versus station-based postprocessing of ensemble temperature forecasts 1005 Hemri S (2019). Multi-model combination and seamless prediction 53 Jordan A, Krüger F, Lerch S (2019). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules 1006 2018 Arnault J, Rummler T, Baur F, Lerch S, Wagner S, Fersch B, Zhang Z, Kerandi N, Keil C, Kunstmann H (2018). Precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty of terrestrial water flow in WRF-Hydro: An ensemble analysis for Central Europe 338 Baran S, Lerch S (2018). Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts 339 Ehm W, Krüger F (2018). Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization 340 Gneiting T, Asher J, Carriquiry A, Davis R, Dawid AP, Efron B, Haberman S, Kou S, Newton M, Paddock S, Prewitt K, Raftery A, Stein M, Straf M (2018). Special section in memory of Stephen E. Fienberg (1942–2016) AOAS Editor-in-Chief 2013–2015 341 Pantillon F, Lerch S, Knippertz P, Corsmeier U (2018). Forecasting wind gusts in winter storms using a calibrated convection‐permitting ensemble 342 Rasp S, Lerch S (2018). Neural networks for postprocessing ensemble weather forecasts 343 Vogel P, Knippertz P, Fink AH, Schlueter A, Gneiting T (2018). Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall over northern tropical Africa 344 2017 Ehm W, Ovcharov E (2017). Bias-corrected score decomposition for generalized quantiles 223 Gneiting T (2017). When is the mode functional the Bayes classifier? 225 Hemri S, Klein B (2017). Analog-based postprocessing of navigation-related hydrological ensemble forecasts 226 Lerch S, Baran S (2017). Similarity-based semilocal estimation of post-processing models 228 Lerch S, Thorarinsdottir TL, Ravazzolo F, Gneiting T (2017). Forecaster’s dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation 229 Schmidt P (2017). Discussion of “Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation” 230 Krüger F (2017). Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: Ensembles versus histograms 1391 Krüger F, Clark TE, Ravazzolo F (2017). Using entropic tilting to combine BVAR forecasts with external nowcasts 1392 Schefzik R (2017). Ensemble calibration with preserved correlations: Unifying and comparing ensemble copula coupling and member‐by‐member postprocessing 1393 2016 Ehm W (2016). Reproducibility from the perspective of meta-analysis 129 Elliott G, Ghanem D, Krüger F (2016). Forecasting conditional probabilities of binary outcomes under misspecification 132 Ehm W, Gneiting T, Jordan A, Krueger F (2016). Of quantiles and expectiles: Consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings (with discussion and reply) 49 Baran S, Lerch S (2016). Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed 128 Ehm W, Wackermann J (2016). Geometric–optical illusions and Riemannian geometry 130 Hemri S, Haiden T, Pappenberger F (2016). Discrete postprocessing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts 136 Krüger F, Nolte I (2016). Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts 138 Schefzik R (2016). A similarity-based implementation of the Schaake shuffle 141 Schefzik R (2016). Combining parametric low‐dimensional ensemble postprocessing with reordering methods 142 Fissler T, Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2016). Expected shortfall is jointly elicitable with value-at-risk: Implications for backtesting , Risk Magazine, January:58–61 143 2015 Baran S, Lerch S (2015). Log‐normal distribution based ensemble model output statistics models for probabilistic wind‐speed forecasting 48 Feldmann K, Scheuerer M, Thorarinsdottir TL (2015). Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression 50 Hansen L, Thorarinsdottir T, Ovcharov E, Gneiting T, Richards D (2015). Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension 52 Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2015). Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting 54 Ovcharov E (2015). Existence and uniqueness of proper scoring rules 55 Schefzik R (2015). Multivariate discrete copulas, with applications in probabilistic weather forecasting 57 2014 Hemri S, Lisniak D, Klein B (2014). Ermittlung probabilistischer Abflussvorhersagen unter Berücksichtigung zensierter Daten 1090 Richardson D, Hemri S, Bogner K, Gneiting T, Haiden T, Pappenberger F, Scheuerer M (2014). Calibration of ECMWF forecasts , ECMWF Newsletter, 142:12–16 56 Hemri S, Scheuerer M, Pappenberger F, Bogner K, Haiden T (2014). Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts 1394 Gneiting T, Katzfuss M (2014). Probabilistic forecasting 1395 Scheuerer M, Gneiting T (2014). Evaluating predictive performance 1396 Ziegel JF, Gneiting T (2014). Copula calibration 1397 Dueck J, Edelmann D, Gneiting T, Richards D (2014). The affinely invariant distance correlation 1411 2013 Schefzik R, Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T (2013). Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling 1398 Sloughter JM, Gneiting T, Raftery AE (2013). Probabilistic wind vector forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging 1400 Gneiting T, Ranjan R (2013). Combining predictive distributions 1401 Thorarinsdottir TL, Gneiting T, Gissibl N (2013). Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models 1402 Grant K, Gneiting T (2013). Consistent scoring functions for quantiles 1403 Gneiting T (2013). Strictly and non-strictly positive definite functions on spheres 1412
2022 2020 2019 2016 Fiedler J (2016). Distances, Gegenbauer expansions, curls, and dimples: On dependence measures for random fields (Doctoral Thesis) 133 Hemri S (2016). Probabilistic forecasting based on hydrometeorological ensembles (Doctoral Thesis) 135 Jordan A (2016). Facets of forecast evaluation (Doctoral Thesis) 137 Lerch S (2016). Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment, with focus on extreme events (Doctoral Thesis) 139 2015
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