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The science of forecasting: Models and data instead of crystal balls

“Summer School” in Heidelberg in the framework of the “ScienceFore” Project, led by Tilmann Gneiting (HITS). The project is funded by ERC Advanced grant from the European Union.   “Que sera, sera”: The future being uncertain, forecasts ought to be probabilistic in nature, taking the form of probability distributions over future quantities or events. Accordingly,…

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HITS researcher becomes Fellow of the American Statistical Association

“Computational Statstics” group leader Prof. Tilmann Gneiting is being named Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) 2017. In this year, the ASA is bestowing its prestigious distinction of Fellow on 62 members for their professional contributions, leadership and commitment to the field of statistical science. This year’s Fellows will be officially recognized at the…

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The Forecaster’s Dilemma: Evaluating forecasts of extreme events

Accurate predictions of extreme events do not necessarily indicate the scientific superiority of the forecaster or the forecast method from which they originate. The way forecast evaluation is conducted in the media can thus pose a dilemma. When it comes to extreme events, public discussion of forecasts often focuses on predictive performance. After the international…

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Three “Highly Cited Researchers” at HITS

In this year’s ranking of “Highly Cited Researchers”, three HITS scientists are named among the most cited researchers worldwide: Tilmann Gneiting (Mathematics), Volker Springel (Space Science) and, for the first time, Alexandros Stamatakis (Computer Science).   Three researchers from the Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS) belong to the most cited researchers worldwide. The “Highly…

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Not only the Weather: Workshop on Advances in Economic Forecasting

When we are talking about forecasting, most of us associate it with the weather, come rain or shine. However, forecasting is also a big issue in the economic sector, where forecasts inform the decisions of policymakers, businesses and consumers alike. On June 6, 2016, the Computational Statistics (CST) group at HITS (group leader: Prof. Tilmann…

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Tilmann Gneiting as Editor-in-Chief of “The Annals of Applied Statistics”

HITS group leader Professor Tilmann Gneiting is now Editor-In-Chief of the peer-reviewed scientific journal “The Annals of Applied Statistics”, which is published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS). He takes over from Professor Stephen A. Fienberg at Carnegie Mellon University in the U.S. Statistical research spans an enormous range from direct subject-matter collaborations to…

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HITS researchers cited worldwide

In the recent ranking “Highly Cited Researchers” by Thomson Reuters, the HITS scientists Volker Springel (Astrophysics) and Tilmann Gneiting (Mathematics) are once again among the highly cited researchers worldwide. Two scientists of the Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS) belong to the group of highly cited researchers worldwide. The result of the “Highly Cited Researchers”…

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HITSter wins Poster Prize at “Extremes 2014“ Symposium

Kira Feldmann, PhD Student in the Computational Statistics group at HITS, was awarded a poster prize at the “Extremes Symposium 2014” by the Volkswagen Foundation in Hannover. Out of 21 participants, she and three other young researchers from Potsdam, Hamburg and Munich were picked as winners. Kira’s poster was titled: “Spatial postprocessing for forecasts of…

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Tilmann Gneiting appointed Fellow of the ECMWF

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is launching a new fellowship program to foster collaboration with renowned international scientists. One of the first ECMWF Fellows is HITSter Prof. Tilmann Gneiting (CST).  His research interests center on statistical methodology, probability theory, and forecasting. “There has been a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting,”…

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